Backing teams to win each week is great fun, but if you want to guarantee excitement all season, it is worth thinking about long term bets. A favourite with basketball fans is betting on which teams will make the playoffs. It is a bet that requires careful research, so read on to learn all you need.
Eastern Conference
There is no denying the talent in the eastern conference, but some teams are more likely to make the playoffs than others are. While it is early days, a clear picture is already emerging.
Sure-fire Picks
For the Eastern Conference, the Bucks, Celtics, and Cavaliers are the teams to beat. New point guards Damian Lillard for the Bucks and Jrue Holiday for the Celtics have enhanced their squads. Moreover, the Cavaliers are gaining momentum with their young talent, specifically Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Middle of the pack
Next in line are the 76ers, Heat, and Knicks. They possess both the potential and key players to have a successful season. Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler stand out for the 76ers and Heat, while Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson are crucial for the Knicks.
Play-in Prospects
Lastly, the Hawks and Bulls snag our last 2 spots. The Hawks aim to recover from recent disappointing seasons with the help of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. However, the Bulls are already poised for a strong season, thanks to their experienced roster and Coach Bill Donovan.
Western Conference:
The Western Conference is sure to be competitive. There is a long season ahead, but the following seems likely.
Sure-fire Picks
In the Western Conference, the Nuggets, Suns, Warriors, and Lakers are almost certain to make the playoffs. These teams come with strong rosters and considerable depth, making them the safest choices.
Middle of the pack
The Mavericks and Kings are also promising. Doncic and Irving make a compelling case for the Mavericks, and the Kings should capitalize on last season's moderate success, led by Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox.
Play-in Prospects
Wrapping up our picks for the Western Conference, the Pelicans and Thunder occupy the #7 and #8 spots. A strong lineup makes the Pelicans a contender if they can maintain good health. However, the Thunder have their own ace in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, complemented by proficient coaching.
Ones to Watch
Not to be overlooked are some potential underdogs, like the Pistons and Rockets. The Rockets are setting themselves up for a potentially successful season by blending young players such as Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. with seasoned veterans like Fred VanVleet and Jeff Green.
In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons are our sleeper pick. With a returning Cade Cunningham and new additions like Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivy, they are building a strong young core. Veterans Monte Morris and Joe Harris add a level of maturity, making the Pistons an intriguing team this season.
Strategies and Tips for Betting on the NBA Playoffs
Understanding the teams is definitely vital to betting on the NBA, but it is just one part of the equation. Knowing how to bet effectively can mean the difference between a profitable season and one you'd rather forget.
Understand the Different Types of Bets
First off, familiarise yourself with the types of bets you can place. Apart from the straightforward moneyline bets on who will win, you can also explore over/under bets, point spread bets, prop bets, and futures. Each type of bet requires a different approach and understanding.
- Moneyline: Simple and straightforward, you're just picking the team that will win. However, the odds might not offer great value for heavy favourites.
- Over/Under: These bets are placed on the total points scored in a game by both teams combined. Analyse previous games and player statistics to get a read on this.
- Point Spread: This bet evens out the odds between a favourite and an underdog. If you're betting on the favourite, they must win by more than a specified number of points for your bet to win.
- Prop Bets: These are wagers on specific events within a game, like how many points a player will score. These bets can offer value if you've done your research.
- Outrights: These are long-term bets, such as who will win the championship or who will be the MVP. The odds can be pretty lucrative.
Use Statistics to Your Advantage
In the age of data, relying on your gut is less advisable than ever. Use statistics to inform your betting choices. Websites offer various analytics that can help you understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team and player. Consider metrics like player efficiency ratings, injury reports, and even the schedule a team has ahead of them. These factors can give you a more complete picture of what to expect.
Know When to Hedge Your Bets
As the playoffs approach or even during the playoff series, you might find opportunities to hedge your bets. This involves placing a new bet that guarantees some level of profit regardless of the game outcome. For instance, if you've bet on an underdog who's now leading a series, you might want to place a counter-bet on the original favourite to ensure you win some money no matter what happens next.
Don't Ignore the Intangibles
While statistics are crucial, they don't capture everything. Factors like team morale, news, and even the local weather can influence a game's outcome. Keep an ear to the ground and be aware of these less quantifiable aspects when placing your bets.
Keep Track of Your Bets
It's easy to get carried away during the excitement of the season, so make sure you're keeping meticulous records of your wagers, wins, and losses. This not only helps you stay responsible but can also be an educational tool. Over time, you'll get a sense of what strategies work for you and what needs tweaking.
Strategies for Long-term Betting
As we mentioned earlier, betting on which teams will make the playoffs can be an exciting long-term strategy. However, it's not just about picking the favourites; often the real money is in identifying the underdogs who will surprise everyone. For these bets, consider teams that have recently made significant player acquisitions or have young players who are poised for breakout seasons. Look at training camp reports, preseason performances, and any other indicators that suggest a team might perform above expectations.
Rookie Watch
While seasoned stars make the headlines and are generally the safer bets, don’t overlook the potential impact of rookies. Every season, a new set of young players enter the league, and some go on to exceed expectations dramatically. Their inclusion in the team can be a game-changer and lead to unpredicted runs towards the playoffs. The odds for bets involving rookies can be particularly favourable, making them highly attractive.
Injuries and Their Impact
Although unfortunate, injuries are a part of the game and can drastically change a team's season and your bet's fate. Always keep an eye on injury reports. If a key player is out for an extended period, it may affect the team's performance and thus, your bets. Conversely, a star player returning from an injury can be the catalyst a team needs to secure a playoff spot. mr.play will update the odds accordingly, so it’s a good practice to stay informed.
Matchups and Schedules
The NBA schedule is not created equally for all teams. While some might have a harder run due to more road games or tough opponents in quick succession, others might benefit from a more relaxed schedule. Before placing your long-term bets, it’s worth evaluating the season's schedule. A challenging stretch of games can make or break a team’s playoff hopes, while a lighter schedule can give a team the momentum they need to secure a higher seed.
Late-Season Considerations
When you're nearing the end of the regular season, don't forget to take into account how secure teams are in their playoff positions. Some teams might rest their key players to keep them fresh for the playoffs, which could affect the outcome of those final few games. Make sure to consider this when you're looking at the long-term bets near the end of the season.
Make Your Playoff Predictions Today
So there you have it. While there are never any guarantees in sports betting, these strategies should set you on a path towards more informed and potentially profitable wagering. Once you’ve completed your analysis and devised your strategy, you’ll find all you need at mr.play to give yourself the best possible chance of winning.
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